제목: Arthur Hayes Predicts Resurgence of ‘Up Only’ Crypto Season


부제: Arthur Hayes predicts a significant bullish trend for Bitcoin, forecasting a price of over $250,000 by the end of 2025 due to increased U.S. liquidity.


본문: Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, believes a major bullish wave in the crypto market is inevitable. In his latest essay, Hayes forecast that Bitcoin could soar past $250,000 by the end of 2025, fueled by growing U.S. liquidity, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and potential political shifts. He expects the strongest momentum to build between late Q3 and early Q4 of 2025, setting the stage for significant upward price movement. Central to his thesis is the role of liquidity expansion in the United States, which he argues could be triggered by Treasury-backed currency expansion programs and sustained rate cuts by the Fed.
Hayes also pointed to the potential political influence of President Donald Trump. He suggested that Trump could reshape the Federal Reserve by appointing allies who favor his economic philosophy, thereby enabling more aggressive monetary expansion. Such a shift, Hayes argues, would increase systemic liquidity and lift hard assets like Bitcoin to new record highs.
To illustrate his point, Hayes compared today’s U.S. economy to the World War II era, when the Federal Reserve controlled bond yields between 1942 and 1951 to finance military spending. At that time, the central bank capped short-term Treasury yields at 0.675% and long-term yields at 2.5%, allowing the government to borrow cheaply and channel funds into defense production. He believes a similar policy could emerge under Trump’s leadership, potentially directed by economic advisors such as investor William “Buffalo Bill” Bessent. By reducing deposit rates and purchasing Treasury bonds in bulk, the Fed could once again manipulate the yield curve, boosting credit availability and spurring industrial investment.
Hayes also referenced the Federal Reserve’s response to the COVID-19 crisis, during which it purchased roughly 40% of all Treasury debt and helped expand bank lending by $2.5 trillion. Extrapolating from this precedent, he projected that a renewed yield curve program under Trump could generate up to $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028. According to Hayes, Bitcoin has historically tracked credit growth, with price increases showing a measurable correlation to monetary expansion. Based on his credit projection, he calculated that Bitcoin’s price could theoretically rise as high as $3.4 million in the longer term.
Hayes remains deeply optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, viewing U.S. monetary policy and political dynamics as key drivers of liquidity growth. His bold prediction of $250,000 by late 2025 reflects not only faith in the cryptocurrency’s resilience but also a conviction that global economic conditions are aligning in its favor.