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제목: Arthur Hayes: U.S. War Financing Will Drive Bitcoin Into the Million-Dollar Era
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부제: Seoul, September 2025 — At the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) Summit 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes delivered a provocative keynote, predicting that the U.S. government’s aggressive money-printing policies under Donald Trump could catapult Bitcoin to extraordinary heights. Hayes forecasted that by 2028, a single Bitcoin could be worth as much as $3.4 million.
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본문:
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The Core Argument: Printing for War
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Hayes argued that the United States is set to embark on a period of “crazy” monetary expansion, designed to reindustrialize its military base and finance future wars. He compared the situation to the 1940s, when the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve worked together under Yield Curve Control policies to suppress borrowing costs while issuing massive war debt.
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The Mechanism: Yield Curve Control
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At the center of Hayes’ thesis is the Federal Reserve’s likely adoption of yield curve control (YCC). By capping interest rates on government bonds, the Fed would allow the Treasury to borrow cheaply and push banks to expand credit. Hayes expects a “bull steepening” of the yield curve, a structure that benefits financial institutions and spurs lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.
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The Political Path Under Trump
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Hayes outlined a political roadmap in which former President Trump, by 2026, consolidates control over the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). With loyalists in place, Trump could revive quantitative easing (QE) on an unprecedented scale, ensuring credit expansion regardless of inflationary pressures.
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Credit Creation Forecast
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Between now and 2028, Hayes projects that such policies could unleash $15.2 trillion in new credit, combining both central bank liquidity and commercial bank lending.
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Bitcoin’s Price Potential
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To arrive at his headline number, Hayes applied the historical relationship between U.S. credit expansion and Bitcoin’s performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this ratio, he projected Bitcoin’s price could theoretically climb to $3.4 million per coin. While acknowledging that the exact figure may not materialize, Hayes insisted that the “million-dollar era” for Bitcoin is inevitable under these conditions.
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Investor Takeaway
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For investors, Hayes’ message was clear: the massive and coordinated expansion of the money supply is profoundly bullish for Bitcoin. If correct, this dynamic could disrupt the traditional four-year cycle that has historically defined Bitcoin’s market movements.
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“If the U.S. prints trillions to finance war and reindustrialization, Bitcoin is the natural hedge,” Hayes concluded. “This is the path to unprecedented price levels.”
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