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제목: Arthur Hayes: U.S. War Financing Will Drive Bitcoin Into the Million-Dollar Era
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부제: Seoul, September 2025 — At the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) Summit 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes delivered a provocative keynote, predicting that the U.S. government’s aggressive money-printing policies under Donald Trump could catapult Bitcoin to extraordinary heights. Hayes forecasted that by 2028, a single Bitcoin could be worth as much as $3.4 million.
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본문:
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At the KBW 2025 Summit, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes delivered one of his most provocative forecasts yet: the United States’ coming wave of money printing to fund military reindustrialization could push Bitcoin into the multimillion-dollar range. Hayes argued that America is entering a period of “crazy” monetary expansion, designed to rebuild its military base and finance future wars. He drew a direct parallel to the 1940s, when the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve jointly employed Yield Curve Control (YCC) policies to suppress borrowing costs while issuing massive wartime debt.
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Central to his thesis is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will adopt YCC once again. By capping interest rates on government bonds, the Fed would allow the Treasury to borrow cheaply while pushing banks to expand credit. Hayes envisions a “bull steepening” of the yield curve — a structure that favors financial institutions and encourages lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
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According to Hayes, the political trigger could come under former President Donald Trump. By 2026, he argued, Trump may consolidate control over the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). With loyalists in key positions, Trump could revive quantitative easing (QE) on an unprecedented scale, ensuring liquidity expansion regardless of inflationary pressures. Hayes projects that between now and 2028, these policies could create approximately $15.2 trillion in new credit, combining both central bank liquidity and commercial bank lending.
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Using the historical relationship between U.S. credit expansion and Bitcoin’s performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hayes calculated that Bitcoin could theoretically climb as high as $3.4 million per coin. While stressing that the exact number may not be realized, he argued that the “million-dollar era” for Bitcoin is inevitable under these conditions. For investors, his message was unambiguous: massive, coordinated money printing is profoundly bullish for Bitcoin. If his thesis proves correct, this dynamic could disrupt the traditional four-year cycle that has historically defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.
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“If the U.S. prints trillions to finance war and reindustrialization, Bitcoin is the natural hedge,” Hayes concluded. “This is the path to unprecedented price levels.”
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